Sailing and cruising involves risks, as does nearly every activity.  But, is there a way to evaluate if the degree of risk is acceptable, and if it is possible to minimize the risks?  This type of discussion is not helped by many published “disaster” stories along with comments on “lessons learned”.  Although dramatic and interesting, these isolated incidents may, or may not, be applicable to all cruisers.  And importantly, they are not set in a framework of all possible risks or the likelihood of the event occurring.

To further a logical discussion of cruising risks, I have given a lot of thought to the issue and have asked cruising friends about their views.  This article will attempt to put these thoughts forward in a methodology whereby everyone will be better able to put a discussion of risks into a rational frame work, thus assisting the preparation for going to sea.

To do this, potential risks should be evaluated in terms of frequency, possible outcomes and responses.

Frequency, or possibility of occurrence.  What is the likelihood an event will occur?

All risks are not random occurrences.  They are influenced by where and when the sailing takes place, the condition of the boat, and by the skill and expertise practiced while sailing.  For an obvious example, not going out in possible bad weather will minimize many associated potential risks.  Thus, many risks can be avoided, or minimized, by a Captains own actions.

Some risks are true random occurrences.  For example, hitting a submerged container.  There is a very low probability of ever hitting a container.  Keeping a look out is not practical at night, in high seas and for days on end.  There may be more risk in areas near busy ship traffic lanes and during the winter and spring when storms make it more likely that containers are washed overboard from ships.  However, the consequences of hitting a container could be severe with the possibility of losing a rudder, or even sinking depending upon the type of collision (head on, glancing, scraping by, etc.) and the construction of the boat. 

So what should a cruiser do?  One response, which is not irrational due to the low probability, is to ignore the possibility.  At the other end of the spectrum, some cruisers advocate steel or aluminum boats for such a possibility and for possible grounding with reefs, etc.  I chose a middle route as I decided that I did not need a steel or aluminum hull but would accept solid (non-cored) fiberglass construction.  In addition, I had the boat builder put Kevlar (the material used for bullet proof vests) into the hull buildup in the bow area of the boat for more penetration resistance.  Also, as I was more concerned about a head on collision or a major hit in the bow area, I had the forward cabin made into a watertight compartment.  The boat will not sink even if holed in the forward cabin area, even though we would be bow down.  But we would have time to assess the situation and try to effect repairs.  (We could still enter the cabin through the deck hatch.)  Any collision aft of the cabin would be a glancing blow so the consequences should be less severe.  In this example, each cruiser should evaluate what they are comfortable with for this possible random occurrence.

It would be nice to have statistical data on possible risks and their likelihood of occurring, however, such data is not available.  So every cruiser will have to use their own judgment to identify possible risks and decide how concerned they are about each of them.

Possible Outcomes

The second way to categorize risks is by their potential severity.  Outcomes can range from minor irritation to death.  The necessity for an action plan increases with increased severity, no matter the possible frequency.  Obviously, risks with high severity and high likelihood are the most critical.

All planning and response actions should be selected to reduce the severity of an event, if it occurs.  For example, keeping a fire blanket near the stove to smother oil or fat fires before they get out of control is a good idea.  This action reduces the potential severity without addressing the possible frequency. 

Responses to Emergencies

Equipment and boat design options can be considered in advance.  There is a lot of equipment sold to handle different risks.  These may, or may not, be good solutions to the risks.  How much of such equipment is purchased will depend upon the evaluation of that potential risk, the cost of the equipment, and how to store it onboard.  Not all items sold represent good value.  Nevertheless, I have a lot of equipment that I hope to never use (starting with the life raft). 

One of the most valuable exercises costs nothing.  That is for the Captain to go over in his mind what he would do in response to all possible risks.  That might suggest possible equipment, but it will force him to develop an action plan in response to a potential crisis.  If such a crisis occurs he will then be much better prepared. The Captain should share these thoughts with other crewmembers so they know what to do and what they expect the Captain will do in an emergency.  In some cases, such as man overboard drills, responses can be practiced in advance.  Also, it is desirable to prepare check lists for things such as departure procedures, “go bag” contents, necessary stores, passage plans in advance, and lists of equipment, spares, and tools onboard and their location.  The more advanced planning the better.

Spontaneous or “jury rig” Responses

Most sailors can devise creative and ingenious solutions to problems.  Repairs can be made using other items found on the boat, but it takes thinking outside the box.  Consider temporary solutions that work but may not be pretty or permanent.  The object is to overcome the impact of the problem or failure until it is possible to get to port and fix it properly.  Don’t give up until everything has been done to solve the issue.  It is incredible what has been done with “jury rig” approaches.

Other Impacts of Risks

Risks and responses should be evaluated on the basis that no outside assistance will be available, although in some cases it may be.  Also, many risks occur at the least desirable time such as at night, in bad weather or near other dangers.  Getting caught in a floating net is one thing when it is daylight and there is a calm sea, but it is quite different when it is night, there is a heavy sea running and a current is forcing the boat towards a rocky shore.

All actions onboard should be aimed at minimizing the possibility of risks occurring and/or to minimize the impact if one does happen.  For example, pay particular attention to watch keeping and lookout in high traffic areas to avoid possible collision with ships.  Or when dealing with flapping sails and lines it is important to act carefully so as not to be injured, thus compounding the impact of the first issue.

Often events occur in a series with ever increasing risk.  For example, bad weather causes inability to maintain course, then engine failure due to fuel problems as a result of boat movement, which then causes loss of electrical instruments due to inability to charge the batteries, which contributes to hitting a reef.  It is therefore important to avoid getting into a downward risk spiral.  This can be done by addressing the initial issues as quickly as possible so no further issues will occur.

The state of the crew is often critical to avoiding risks and minimizing the possible outcome.  Bad weather particularly can often require shorthanded crew to be on deck or on watch at the same time or result in seasickness of some of the crew.  This can lead to sleep deprivation and subsequent inadequate responses.  Additional experienced crew is definitely a safety factor.  One objective should be stress free sailing.  This places fewer burdens on the crew before an emergency occurs.

Redundancy of equipment is a way to minimize the impact of a single failure.  Having hand-held or spare GPS units that can substitute in the event of a failure of the main GPS unit is a good back-up strategy.  Redundancy can also take the form of alternative ways of achieving the same result.  For example, my auto pilot steering rams act directly on the rudderstock.  Thus I could still steer the boat using the autopilot if the manual steering cables broke. 

Being able to repair items and equipment while underway is an important element of self-sufficiency.  This requires having proper spares and tools onboard and the knowledge to perform repairs on the whole boat and all systems.  In my experience I have had to repair nearly every system including the engine, generator, auto pilot, sail handling, toilets, etc., when underway.

Obviously, cruisers have determined either through analysis or intuition that the potential risks are acceptable or can be managed.  When considering going to sea, each individual will have to do his own analysis and assessment. 

For example, sinking is always a possible risk.  After tying tapered plugs next to every thru-hull, what should be done?  The basic issue is the ability to control water inflow to provide time to locate and fix a leak or hole.  This is the purpose of the bilge pump.  However, what if the bilge pump fails, is clogged by debris, or the leak occurs in another part of the boat and the water cannot get to the pump quickly enough?  Additional bilge pumps are generally the answer.  In my case, I have two manually operated pumps, one operated from outside in the cockpit and one from inside.  I also have an engine driven pump which will handle a large quantity of water.  Having used the manual pumps to test them, I concluded that a person could only work the manual pumps for a limited amount of time, and of course, they cannot do anything else at the same time.  So I obtained an electrical submersible pump which can be plugged into a DC outlet quickly and an outlet hose that is long enough to go overboard.  Are five pumps sufficient?  Do they cover the range of possible leaks and the subsequent volume of water?  Are they sufficiently independent so that they will not all fail of the same cause?  For example, if the water rose too high, it could get to the level of the house and engine start batteries, thus preventing starting the engine or running electric bilge pumps.  I find five pumps an acceptable level of redundancy.  Others might think it overkill or not sufficient.  But what about other considerations such as when and how the leak occurs.  It could happen at night and/or in high seas.  It could happen when no crew is awake and/or down below to notice.  Thus, I also have a high water alarm that is very loud and can be heard in the cockpit and by sleeping crew.  I am satisfied that I will be alerted to a situation of high water in the bilge in time to act.  I also test the alarm and all the pumps every month to make sure they are working (and operate all the thru-hull sea cocks as well).  But what about the various types of leaks and possible repair alternatives?  That is another subject that requires analysis, before you can complete this subject.

Potential Risks

To provide a starting point for a cruisers own analysis, the following is a list of risks that might be considered.  They are grouped into three probability categories, based on my experience and that of other cruisers with whom I have talked. 

High Probability

Anchoring Issues

Grounding

These are high probability because a cruiser is always entering new areas, generally without local knowledge.  In other words, cruisers often place themselves at risk unknowingly, or have no other alternatives.

Medium Probability

Storms, Heavy Weather

Medical Issues

Engine failure

Generator failure

These are medium probability because weather predicting, even by experts, is still not an exact science and it is not possible to avoid all bad weather if you are sailing a lot of miles.  Medical issues relate somewhat to the fitness of the crew, but boating is an inherently dangerous environment and many crew still suffer seasickness.  Engines and generators are mechanical devices that are prone to failure, even if all recommended preventative maintenance measures are taken. 

Low Probability

Collision

Sail and Rig problems

Flooding/Sinking

Man Overboard

Fire

Instrument failure

Navigation failure

Radio failure

Electrical failure

Steering problems

Loss of fresh water

Lighting Strike

Piracy

These are low probability because they are usually rare occurrences and most of them can be reduced in potential frequency and severity with good seamanship and preventative measures.

Chart of Risk Probability versus Severity

Attached is a chart that portrays the relationship between various risks and their probability versus severity based upon my experience and data from various publications.  Of course, this is a generalized concept and the severity can vary over a wide range for each risk.  The probability can be dramatically affected by the cruising area involved, the condition and type of boat, and the skill and practice exercised by the crew.  It is the responsibility of each Captain to make his own assessment of every potential risk and develop plans accordingly.

Conclusion

What can this approach do for the cruiser?  In our case we traveled 70,000 miles, including circumnavigating the world.  We had no major crisis and I would view the voyage and twelve years of cruising as relatively stress-free.  Does that mean we had no problems?  Definitely not.  We were in a Force 10 storm, endured many equipment failures, hit a submerged sleeping whale, and the boat was damaged while at a marina in a sudden gale.  Most of these problems we were able to address, often at sea, so that nothing major happened as a result and it did not turn into a crisis.  I believe we minimized possible occurrences by prudent sailing and careful and detailed navigation.  We carefully selected our boat and equipment to address most types of emergencies.  We thought through all types of emergencies and devised plans for responding.  But even so, we have nearly as many stories as the days we were afloat, so things did “happen”.  But we were prepared.  Were we lucky?  Possibly so.  But I don’t think it was just luck.  It is important to plan well in advance and to prepare for possible eventualities.  Safe sailing.

MORE DETAILED ANALYSIS

High Probability

These are high probability because a cruiser is always entering new areas, generally without local knowledge.  In other words, cruisers often place themselves at risk unknowingly, or have no other alternatives.

Anchoring Issues

Anchoring is both an art and a science that requires proper ground tackle and a huge amount of practical experience.  Every cruiser has had anchoring issues at one time or another.  You can never have too heavy an anchor or too much rode deployed.  And, the rode should be heavy chain.  The primary issues are dragging, fouling, current reversals, inadequate swinging room, and heavy weather in the anchorage.  These are impacted by the type of anchor used, the type and depth of the bottom, how well the anchor is set and tested, and the specific choice of the spot to “drop the hook”.  The cruiser should choose gear well, learn all techniques and practice, practice.  Even so, a unique situation will develop which will challenge the cruiser.  And, if all else fails, an anchor watch may be required.  The result of a dragging anchor can vary from nothing to the loss of the boat.

Grounding

It has been said that every sailor has been aground or will go aground.  If so, this is also a 100% probability.  And, if good charts are used the grounding will occur where the chart indicates a shallow point.  The risk is increased in high tidal areas, and areas where there are many rocks, reefs, or sand bars.  And, if a cruiser is going to explore areas where the depth of water is close to the draft of the boat the chances of grounding are increased.  In many cases a soft grounding is not a problem and possibly only an embarrassment.  In other cases, if the tide is ebbing, it could lead to the boat lying on its side.  At other times the cruiser may just let the boat sink into the mud or sand at low tide.  Hard groundings can present many problems including severe structural damage to the boat and damage to underground objects and coral reefs, which might be protected.  A major risk is hitting a sand bar at an entrance to a harbor when a sea is running.  All of these risks can be minimized by use of very detailed charts, and knowledge of the local tides.  In the extreme case, the use of a handheld depth finder, or lead line, to survey an entrance or channel can be well worth the effort.

Medium Probability

These are medium probability because weather predicting, even by experts, is still not an exact science and it is not possible to avoid all bad weather if you are sailing a lot of miles.  Medical issues relate somewhat to the fitness of the crew, but boating is an inherently dangerous environment and many crew still suffer seasickness.  Engines and generators are mechanical devices that are prone to failure, even if all recommended preventative maintenance measures are taken. 

Storms, Heavy Weather

Large seas and high winds have always been dangerous for sailors, and even more so if close to land.  Obviously, the best thing is to avoid high winds but if caught out, then it is critical that the Captain knows his boat well and has several storm weather tactics ready.  Consider whether to use active or passive strategies and utilize storm sails, sea anchors and drogues as appropriate.  But it is best to have a well-found boat, and have knowledge of, and the tolerance for, high sea conditions.  It was demonstrated to me that the weakest link is the crew, and not the boat.

Medical Issues

This category will include illness, seasickness, accident, injury, heart attack, and stroke, among others.  It could be as simple as being attacked by mosquitoes in a remote anchorage, stung by jellyfish, or more normal land based illnesses such as food poisoning.  All activities onboard should be performed in a safe manor to avoid injuries.  The knowledge of first aid and what to do in medical emergencies should be onboard.  If a crewmember has the possibility for more major medical issues, then those need to be addressed before going to sea.

Engine failure

Engine failure at sea may not be a major problem if the boat can be sailed, and if the engine is not needed for power generation or other supplemental tasks.  However, engine failure when entering a port or marina, entering locks, in a canal, in high current areas, and other critical areas can be dangerous.  In these kinds of situations, a quick response is required such as dropping anchor, aborting the maneuver, etc.  With sufficient time the engine should be repaired, even at sea, before a risk spiral to more serious consequences results.  This requires the spare parts, and knowledge, to repair the engine.

Generator failure

Generator failure usually has less severe consequences, especially if power generation can be achieved by other means such as running the main engine or using solar or wind power.  Loss of power generation, depending upon the boat, could result in the loss of refrigeration, battery charge etc., which can lead to other problems.  Again, repair should be achieved as soon as possible.

Low Probability

These are low probability because they are usually rare occurrences and most of them can be reduced in potential frequency with good seamanship and preventative measures.

Collision

A possibility of collision exists even with a high degree of alertness.  This would include hitting many types of floating or semi-submerged objects like containers, logs, icebergs, etc.  as well as ships and other boats.  But it can also include large marine animals like whales as well as fishing lines, fishing nets, and floating ropes and other debris in the oceans.  A sharp lookout is required and procedures to avoid ships and boats will avoid most of the major hazards.  However, it is not possible to see all that is floating in the ocean, and it is more pure chance than anything else.  We have hit a whale, with no damage to either of us, and had to swim under the boat in mid ocean to cut free a long monofilament line.  Luckily, we avoided all floating logs, including “dead heads’ (logs floating vertically) in the Pacific Northwest. But the cruiser should consider all of the possible occurrences and plan accordingly.

Sail and rig problems

Sail failure can take many forms, including sail tearing, ripping, and loss of control as a result of sheet, halyard, or furling line breakage.  Many of these types of problems can be resolved while underway with backup lines, sails, and repair including using sail tape or even sewing.  Rig failure is much more catastrophic, and could include demasting.  The best course of action is to sail conservatively, reefing early, avoiding accidental jibes, maintaining all equipment and conducting periodic inspection of standing rigging, running rigging and sails.  If demasting does occur, many sailors have successfully used jury rigs to reach port.  Thus, the consequences can be mitigated and are generally not severe.

Flooding/Sinking

One of the risks that cause the most concern is flooding or sinking as a result of the severe consequence.  The cause can from the outside, such as collision with a variety of objects, as discussed above, or even capsizing due to heavy seas or a knock down due to sudden high winds.  But sources within the boat represent a higher probability.  These could include various types of equipment failures such as through hulls, hoses, hose clamps, gaskets on engine and generator parts, and various other fittings.  Water can also enter through the exhaust system if components fail.  Even more simply, leaving a hull port open and then healing can take in water.  Given the wide range of possible sources, the issues are to detect a leak, identify the source of the problem, control the flow of water, and then achieve a repair.  Often, the first indication of a leak is the constant running of the bilge pump.  But when people are sleeping, or otherwise occupied, this may not be noticed so a high water alarm is a good idea.  The first line of defense is a good, high volume bilge pump.  But consideration has to be given to the maximum expected flow, and the length of time the pumping must continue.  This subject requires a detailed analysis and a carefully thought out strategy.

Man Overboard

The best solution is to prevent man overboard occurrences in the first place with proper use of tethers, jack lines, and boat procedures.  And then practice man overboard drills so all crew onboard know what to do, even if the man overboard is the Captain.  Each boat should have an accepted procedure to know when a person goes overboard (including personal EPIRB’s), keeping the person in sight, boat handling and sail handling if required, attachment of the person to the boat and recovery, even if the person is unconscious.  This should be a very rare, if not zero chance, of happening but the consequence is so sever it must be considered.  Also, it would probably happen at night and in heavy seas.  Finally, crew should always wear PFD’s whenever appropriate.

Fire

Fire is a very scary prospect aboard a boat.  Luckily, it does not occur that frequently.  Types of fires include those fed by fuel, either diesel or petrol, which may be the most disastrous and the hardest to contain.  Fire can also occur from cooking or from cooking gas, butane or propane, and may result in an explosion as well.  Electrical fires are a possibility and proper use of electrical circuits and circuit breakers can reduce the risk but when connected to shore power there can be additional risk.  Fire can also occur if various mechanical components become too hot, or the exhaust system fails.  Finally, there are other potential sources including cigarettes, candles, and other open flames.  Automatic fire extinguishers in the engine compartment as well as many hand held extinguishers are good containment measures.  But the focus should be on avoiding a fire in the first place and minimizing the potential sources.

Instrument failure

Instrument failure could involve individual instruments or a complete failure of all instrumentation.  This risk is generally not a major issue and sailing by the seat of the pants and dead reckoning is always possible.  The loss of the wind instrument is probably more of an annoyance than anything, as tell-tails can suffice.  Boat speed is also not critical as this can be judged by looking at the water, except when accuracy in dead reckoning is required. The loss of the depth instrument is not a problem in the ocean but could be critical in certain coastal situations.  Overall, this is not a major risk and it should not result in major consequences.

Navigation failure

Navigation failure will most probably involve the loss of electronic charting or GPS data but it could also involve the loss of paper charts or inadequate coverage of paper charts as well as not keeping paper charting up to the moment.  Clearly, paper charts are a backup to electronic failure and handheld GPS units a backup to the main GPS unit.  For the ocean, celestial navigation can provide backup, if the exact time is known.  Current tide tables are essential for sailing near shore.  In general, there are sufficient backup alternatives that this should not develop into a major issue, except in special circumstances like operating in fog.

Radio failure

Radio failure, either of VHF or SSB, or even satellite communications, can be serious but not disastrous.  And, most boats carry handheld VHF radios that can be used as backup.

Electrical failure

The loss of electricity can be a result of battery failure and/or charging issues as well as circuit problems.  The major issues while underway could include the loss of navigation lights, all electronics, and interior lights.   These issues are serious but generally not catastrophic.

Steering problems

Steering problems include rudder failure and steering control failure, such as cable breakage.  Autopilot failure can be a major issue, especially if sailing shorthanded due to the need to have a crewmember on the helm at all times.  Most boats have an emergency tiller and some can steer using the autopilot even if the steering cable breaks.  The most serious risk is the total loss of the rudder, either due to internal failure or hitting an object.  Some times backup alternatives like trailing warps is sufficient, but there have been many boats abandoned when their direction could not be controlled.  Some boats even carry an emergency rudder.  This is a serious risk, but one that is unlikely.  Again, each cruiser will have to determine his own plan.

Loss of fresh water

Unavailability of fresh water can be serious on a long voyage and can be caused by leakage in the fresh water tank, the water being pumped overboard, overflow due to pressure relief valves, and the failure of the fresh water pump among other things.  A backup is to have some fresh water stored in bottles for reserve.  Also, it is possible to have two separate fresh water tanks so that even if a failure causes one to run dry, the other one will act as a reserve.  A water maker can make up any lost water if there is one aboard.

Lighting strike

This is a true random occurrence, though more likely in tropical areas where there are more thunderstorms.  The consequences are generally not life threatening, but can include the loss of all electronics, burnt wiring, pin holes in the hull and other damage.  Although no action may be completely preventative, some measures can be taken including the use of charge dissipaters at the masthead, grounding of the mast to the keel, and grounding the stays to the mast.  Further, we always put our hand held GPS and VHF radios into the microwave when approaching a thunderstorm hoping that the metal cage of the microwave will protect the units.  We never had to test any of these measures, so I don’t know if they really work.  But the risk appears to be more of a massive and expensive rewire and re-equip project than life threatening.

Piracy

Piracy on the open seas is a major issue today, and every cruiser will have to make his own assessment of the risk based on up-to-date facts about the cruising area involved.  I did sail safely through the Gulf of Aden in 2002 and I used my own anti-piracy techniques, but the situation is never constant.  Another issue is being boarded and robbed while at anchor or in port.  I was boarded three times, in Spain, France and Indonesia.  Theft occurred only once, when I forgot to lock the lazerette.  The best means of defense is to lock everything on deck, especially the dinghy and outboard, at all times.  Also, the companionway should always be locked at night.  Sometimes this is difficult in tropic areas where ventilation is needed to sleep.  But the best course of action is villigence and knowing the local situation by engaging in any local cruisers net.

Conclusion

Each of these subjects could, and should, warrant a far more detailed discussion.  That is not the purpose of this exhibit.  What I suggest is that every cruiser consider potential risks in terms of frequency, possible outcomes and possible responses.

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